A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
